Writing on magic internet money.
Notes on crypto, markets and onchain, plus the thread archive. 7 articles in total.
Losses Rarely Stay in the Market Where They Start
Can a stock market sell-off hurt someone who has never owned a single share? It can, and the same links are why Bitcoin fell with the Nasdaq last week even though it missed this year's stock rally.
READ ARTICLE →Credit Is Starting to Crack at the Bottom
The riskiest US corporate bonds now pay more than they did at the worst of the April 2025 tariff shock, while the investment-grade end has barely moved. Where Oracle, Anthropic and CoreWeave sit in all this, and what I'm watching next.
The 10Y Is Near 5%. Here's What Actually Matters
A 5% 10Y can mean very different things. Here is how I take the yield apart into real rates, inflation expectations and term premium, and what I will check first after the Fed decision.
Why 2026 Is Starting to Look Like 2018
Markets are not repeating 2018 candle for candle, but the sequence looks familiar: a weaker dollar, then oil, then long-term yields. This time the system has more debt and less room for mistakes.